Ten years on from the Brexit referendum, Northern Ireland’s economic story is still too often told in extremes. Depending on who you spoke to at the time, Brexit was either creating lasting economic damage from which the region would struggle to recover, or a unique advantage that would transform Northern Ireland’s investment proposition. Who can forget Rishi Sunak describing Northern Ireland as the world’s most exciting economic zone while announcing the Windsor Framework?
Having looked through the evidence of the last ten years the conclusion is much more nuanced. Northern Ireland has not experienced a simple Brexit dividend, but the last ten years appear to have altered the economic geography of the region. Northern Ireland is, integrating more deeply with the all-island economy, selling more services externally, and maintaining a credible international investment proposition.
Northern Ireland can be described as increasingly in a flowing state rather than one of sustained success. Trade flows are changing, services flows are growing and investment flows remain resilient. The issue for the Northern Ireland economy is whether these flows can be converted into productivity gains, value added, supply chain depth and better jobs?
Economic performance has been strong, but uneven
Headline GVA data shows Northern Ireland has recorded relatively strong growth compared to the UK average (11.6% GVA growth between 2016 and 2023 compared to 8.7% in the UK), although this is tempered by shorter-term data that shows the region has not bounced back from the COVID pandemic as quickly as other UK regions.
Economic growth has also not been shared across the economy as growth has been driven by services, particularly ICT, professional services, and administrative and support services. These are the parts of the economy that increasingly define Northern Ireland’s external proposition as they are also the sectors most closely aligned with talent, technology, FDI and exportable business activity.
Manufacturing tells a more complicated story. Goods trade has increased and manufacturing employment has held up, but manufacturing GVA has declined since 2016. This suggests that more activity is happening, but it is not yet translating into stronger productivity or higher value creation. If Northern Ireland’s dual-market access is to become a true economic advantage, it needs to be about more than the flow of goods across borders. It needs to show that firms can capture more value from that movement.
Figure 1: GVA has grown, while manufacturing GVA has fallen
Source: Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency, Northern Ireland Economic Trade Statistics, 2025 (based on current prices)
The emergence of an all-island economy
The clearest post-Brexit shift is in trade geography, and particularly the export of goods where Northern Ireland is becoming more integrated with the all-island economy. The data shows a significant shift with Southern Ireland becoming a larger market for NI exports and Great Britain becoming less important. This change started immediately after Brexit, with the percentage of NI exports going to GB dropping from 58% in 2016 to 50% in 2017, and 42% in 2018. Since then, exports to GB have ranged between 43% to 49% compared to 53% to 58% in the years before Brexit.
Figure 2: The share of goods exports to the Republic of Ireland has more than doubled, while the share to Great Britain has declined
Note: Market share represents percentage of all trade outside of Northern Ireland
Source: Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency, Northern Ireland Economic Trade Statistics, 2025
Recently announced transport infrastructure funding through the Shared Island Fund suggest that the North-South link will only get stronger and increase the potential for services growth as well as goods. This included €100m to support track renewal projects along the Derry-Belfast and Belfast-Dublin rail corridors, and €35m in matched funding with the NI Department for Transport to maintain hourly trains between Dublin and Belfast.
Services were the real winner
While the familiar Brexit debate has focused heavily on goods checks, ports and regulation, services may be the more important long-term story. Northern Ireland’s services exports have grown strongly, with Ireland and global markets becoming more important. As digitally-delivered services continue to boom globally, the future story for Northern Ireland may be less about managing borders and more about growing external reach.
Figure 3: services exports have increased sharply over the period
Source: Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency, Northern Ireland Economic Trade Statistics, 2025
There remain plenty of opportunities for services growth in Northern Ireland given its proximity to the faster-growing, services rich economy in the Republic, continued support from US investors, and enduring links with London. However, skills depth is a potential constraint that needs to be addressed. One solution is greater student mobility across the island, but this needs a policy push and support similar to infrastructure development to address practical barriers around ‘equivalencies’, costs, and accommodation.
A global digital hub
This global aspiration is supported by the role played by services in attracting foreign direct investment into Northern Ireland. Apart from a short dip in investor confidence directly after the Brexit referendum, Northern Ireland has some of the fastest growing FDI project numbers of any UK region in recent years. Growth has been concentrated in business services and technology, with US and Irish companies among the largest sources of investment.
When you look at the reasons investors give for why they set up in Northern Ireland it shows a region that is considered a serious digital hub internationally and one that can contribute to global R&D, something to build on regardless of your views the Brexit.
Figure 4: Renewed momentum for FDI into Northern Ireland
Source: FT Locations, fDiMarkets database, 2026
Strong FDI results shows that Northern Ireland can be competitive when the conditions are right. Dual-market access is a condition, but not one we have got right yet. It may be a useful and distinctive condition, but it does not automatically build supply chains, improve productivity, train workers, attract investors or raise living standards.
The next phase of development in Northern Ireland must be about conversion. Northern Ireland needs to move from passive advantage to active strategy. That means supporting the sectors where its position genuinely matters, helping firms use both the British and Irish markets more effectively, and deepening cross-border supply chains without weakening long-standing trade with Great Britain. Ultimately, it means investing in skills, infrastructure, energy, water, housing and planning so that economic opportunity is not lost through domestic constraint.
Brexit changed Northern Ireland’s economic geography. The next task is to turn that changed geography into productivity, value and prosperity.
