Transatlantic Expansion Barometer

A Pulse Report On How European Mid-Sized Businesses are Navigating U.S. Expansion in an Unpredictable Economic Environment

In association with

european american chamber of commerce
RSM

What’s Driving European Investment into the U.S. –
and What’s Holding It Back?

The second edition of the Transatlantic Expansion Barometer reveals how mid-sized European firms are adapting to ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainty.

Based on 65 company interviews and proprietary FDI statistics, this report delivers fresh insights on crossborder sentiment and real-world decision-making in 2025.

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Why it Matters

For corporate leaders, the Barometer offers a strategic view of the risks and opportunities shaping investment into the U.S. market.

For economic development organisations, it provides critical insight into how investors are recalibrating and how to support them in today’s volatile environment.

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Key Findings at a Glance

Historic Shift in Transatlantic FDI Flows

Investment from Europe to the U.S. is rising, while U.S. investment into Europe is falling - a structural and strategic realignment, not just a short-term shift.

Key Drivers for Location Decisions

Four Main Drivers of the Shift

From the Inflation Reduction Act to diverging energy costs, see what’s pulling investors across the Atlantic - and what’s pushing them away from Europe.

U.S. Growth and Domestic Market
  • The market remained resilient, with a GDP growth rate of 2.8% in 2024 and inflation eased to around 2.2%, amid slow to negative growth rates in Europe and Asia at the same time.
  • U.S. growth was driven by steady consumer spending and public spending.
Diverging Energy Costs
  • Europe's high and volatile energy costs, structurally higher due to resource scarcity and market fragmentation, worsened sharply after the war in Ukraine. Russian gas imports fell from 40% to 8% (2021- 2023), forcing the use of more expensive alternatives. Energy prices soared, hurting industrial margins and investor confidence.
  • Since then, Trump has ended climate policies and withdrew from the Paris Climate Accord, eventually driving short term energy prices further down in the U.S.
Inflation Reduction Act
  • The Inflation Reduction Act offers strong incentives to invest domestically, making the US more attractive than Europe for American firms.
  • European investors also shifted capital and operations to the U.S. to benefit from subsidies in clean tech and advanced manufacturing.
Growing Geopolitical Risk and Supply Dependencies
  • The EU remains heavily dependent on imports of critical raw materials (nickel, copper, lithium, cobalt) and essential technologies (semiconductors, cloud, AI), often sourced from countries with unstable or non-aligned geopolitical stances, such as China and Taiwan.
  • As global tensions rise, particularly with the U.S.-China rivalry and instability in the Asia- Pacific, Europe’s reliance on such suppliers exposes its industries to supply disruptions, price volatility, and potential politically motivated trade restrictions.
Mark your product in America and there are no tariffs
"Make your product in America and there are no tariffs."

President of the United States of America, Donald Trump

Is this Strategy Paying Off?

While tariff announcements back and forth are creating considerable hesitation among European investors, they still see the U.S. as a top priority market for future growth. Investment reactions are nuanced depending on investor’s profile.

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"Our company operates a factory in Mexico, with production mainly destined for the U.S. So far, reshoring to the U.S. is not on the table. The cost and risk of such a transfer are too high. Faced with uncertainty, we prefer to maintain our existing production model and, for the first time, we are considering Mexico as a consumer market in its own right, as well as a buffer against market volatility elsewhere."
Industrial Equipment Company
“Our products are mainly made of steel and aluminium, and our whole supply chain is here in Italy, within a radius of 50 km. So we feared that our products would fall into the categories affected by the tariffs. However, fortunately, we do not fall into the categories identified so far, so we are a bit more at ease.

We are considering opening a manufacturing site in the U.S., but not only because of tariffs, even if they have had an accelerator effect.“
Safety Equipment Company

Need Help Navigating U.S. or European Expansion?

OCO Global supports mid-sized businesses in identifying the right markets, managing risk, and accelerating entry into new regions. Get in touch to learn how we can support your growth across the Atlantic.

Missed the first edition?

Catch up on our 2024 Barometer, a snapshot of midsized companies’ expansion plans in both Europe and the U.S.

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What's Next

What's Coming Next

Stay One Step Ahead.

Our next report will explore how U.S. mid-sized businesses are approaching European expansion in today’s complex environment. Be the first to access it – Register for Updates.

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