You are always a hostage to fortune when you commit concrete predictions to print, and so it proved when we published the OCO Global Outlook in January suggesting that the picture on tariffs had become clearer, the week before Trump threatened Europe with a wave of punitive levies over Greenland.
But in many ways, that week-long paroxysm helped reinforce our central message regarding tariffs: that businesses that may have paused investment decisions during the turmoil of 2025 are going to have to embrace – and manage – risk in 2026. Waiting on the sidelines for certainty is not a viable strategy.
Rather than pointing to retreat, the Global Outlook highlights recalibration, capital becoming more selective, decision-making more deliberate, and confidence increasingly shaped by local conditions rather than headline narratives. In the UK, that distinction is critical.
From macro signals to investor behaviour
At a national level, the UK continues to send mixed signals. Macroeconomic stability has improved, but questions around long-term policy direction and delivery capacity persist. What’s interesting, however, is how investors are interpreting this in practice.
International investors are not stepping away from the UK. Instead, they are narrowing their focus. Conversations are less about broad market access and more about regional fundamentals: labour availability, sector depth, infrastructure readiness, and the ability to navigate complexity efficiently.
This is where the macro picture meets investor behaviour. In a fragmented global environment, investors are placing greater value on predictability at a local level. They are looking for places that can demonstrate consistency of leadership, coordination across institutions, and a clear understanding of their role within national priorities.
The rise of regional clarity
One of the strongest themes emerging from investor discussions is differentiation between UK regions. Devolution and local leadership are no longer peripheral considerations; they are central to how locations are assessed.
Regions that can articulate a clear economic identity, backed by delivery mechanisms rather than ambition alone, are moving ahead. This is particularly evident in sectors such as advanced manufacturing, life sciences, and digital industries, where investors are comparing ecosystems rather than incentives.
The Global Outlook points to risk being managed rather than avoided. In the UK context, this often translates into phased investments, partnerships with local institutions, and an emphasis on long-term operating conditions over short-term cost advantages.
What this means for UK stakeholders
For UK regions and organisations engaging international investors, the opportunity lies in interpretation as much as promotion. Investors are already aware of the UK’s strengths. What they need help with is understanding how those strengths play out locally and how complexity is navigated in practice.
Clear articulation of priorities, joined-up delivery, and credible evidence of execution are increasingly decisive. In a cautious global market, confidence is built through clarity.
A takeaway for the UK
The Global Outlook reinforces that the UK remains competitive, but unevenly so. Success will come to those regions that can leverage macro stability into strong local value propositions and help investors mitigate and manage unavoidable risk
